Trump’s Proposed Tariffs Could Disrupt FMCG Recovery Amidst Naira Volatility
Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed threats to impose heavy tariffs on Chinese imports if re-elected are raising fresh concerns for Nigeria’s fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector, potentially compounding challenges already driven by naira fluctuations and import dependency.
Trump has vowed to implement tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese goods, signaling a potential escalation in global trade tensions. For Nigeria, where a significant portion of finished goods and raw materials are sourced directly or indirectly from China, such policy developments may drive up costs across the FMCG supply chain.
“If Trump goes ahead with his tariff plans, prices of Chinese goods and products imported from other economies linked to China will rise,” said Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, in a recent media statement. “This would significantly affect Nigeria, which is already struggling with inflation and currency devaluation.”
The naira has lost more than 60% of its value since June 2023 following the Central Bank of Nigeria’s exchange rate unification policy. This depreciation has increased the cost of imports, including critical FMCG inputs, from raw materials to packaging. Local manufacturers, many of whom rely on imports due to limited domestic industrial capacity, are feeling the squeeze.
Nigeria’s inflation rate hit 31.7% in February, driven largely by food inflation and imported cost pressures. For FMCG firms operating in this environment, pricing strategies, product affordability, and supply chain resilience are under intense pressure.
Industry stakeholders fear that if Trump’s proposed tariffs materialize, it could spark a new wave of costlier imports and global supply chain constraints. This would affect not only imported consumer goods but also local production that depends on foreign raw materials.
According to trade data, China remains one of Nigeria’s top import partners, accounting for 27.5% of total imports in Q4 2023. Key imports from China include machinery and manufacturing inputs essential for production across categories such as packaged foods, beverages, personal care, and household goods.
FMCG companies must closely monitor global trade developments while accelerating strategies that strengthen localized sourcing, cost management, and inventory planning. Further shocks to an already fragile value chain could derail recovery efforts across the sector